Week 92: 12/13 - 12/19/2021
- jpoheim
- Dec 19, 2021
- 2 min read
Yes, cases are up - but hospitalizations are much lower than they were this time last year. Yes, Omicron is loose. But, the advance of "hot spots" out West depends on whether your county is well vaccinated or not. With the Holidays coming up and corresponding gaps in data, we will continue have difficulty distinguishing between a Holiday Effect related to travel and Omicron "making landfall" in one or more of Texas's Trauma Service Areas.
Cases and Hospitalizations A sharp increase in cases was measured along the Gulf Coast in advance of any effect on Hospitalizations. Figure 1 illustrates the situation in terms of the Overall State: one year ago, there were over 6,000 Covid-19 Hospitalizations averaged over a 7-day period with on the order of 90,000 weekly confirmed cases. While the 2021 New Year's Surge tested all of us, there are signs that the 2022 New Year's data will be different.

First, examine Figures 2a through 2e and see how cases vary not only by region but in comparison with earlier surges. North Texas and Gulf Coast recent cases have the largest spikes given their large population and higher population density.
The lag between cases and hospitalizations is typically 1-2 weeks such that these are expected in the upcoming Week 93 and Week 94 reports.

Note that the Border and Panhandle are at opposite ends of the Vaccinations Spectrum at
75+% and 45% respectively. While their plots appear very similar, on a per capita basis, the Panhandle has the highest Covid-19 response of the state. Whether the unvaccinated status of this region puts its Hospitals and population at large at risk will be tested against the Border where counties match up against the High Vaccination States. Figure 3 demonstrates that El Paso's TSA may have peaked given its recent push to vaccinate pre-teens and young children and get out booster shots.

Just as the Rio Grande Valley (TSA-V) turned its Delta Hospitalization numbers around with vaccinations, it will be interesting to track TSA-A, B (Amarillo and Lubbock) vs. TSA-I (El Paso) to see whether the Omicron severity can be similarly managed.
Hot Spot State Survey The spread of surge conditions from West to East was hypothesized seven weeks ago in the Week 85 report https://www.texascovid19trail.com/post/week-85-october-25-november-1-2021 . Since then, there has been a development of such a front. However, this week's survey shows fewer dark red areas, except in the Panhandle (see Figure 4)

In Central Texas and along the Gulf Coast, Cases have increased - however, on a per capita basis, they do not yet merit the Hot Spot designation. Is this because the Gulf Coast has a better Vaccination Rate (61%) and is expected to hold its own against Omicron? I would say that 61% is not high enough especially since there are Counties such as Jefferson (50%), Chambers (50%), Orange (37%) and Liberty (45%) where on the order of 500,000 people live. Given that spread will include both breakthrough infections as well as unvaccinated individuals, this order of magnitude could put TSA-Q and R at risk depending on the severity of the variant and our ability to facilitate recovery at home using Pfizer and Merck pills.
Comentários