Covid-19 Hospitalizations are in free-fall taking pressure off of ICU and their attendant staff. Texans can schedule their Spring Break Vacations and take them without fear of spread, for now. While it feels liberating, the numbers are not that different from where they were last Spring.
Figure 1 illustrates the 7-Day Average Hospitalizations and Weekly Fatalities for all five Texas regions. Horizontal red lines are drawn parallel to the x-axis (time between 2020 Summer Surge to the present). Vertical Arrows mark Week 103 and Week 51, one year ago. While the two sets of blue bars are similar, I am waiting to get the Fatalities (6-week lag in Fatalities) in order to calculated Covid-19 Patient-Fatality Ratio for the Four Surges of the last three years.
According to the Hospitalization details by TSA, Amarillo and Wichita Falls are still operating in an ICU-bed limited mode (<5 beds available). This suggests that North Texas and the Panhandle will have a Fatalities profile that falls slower than their Weekly Hospitalization Covid-19 Patient Averages which is less than or equal to where we were a year ago when restrictions were lifted.
Back then, followers were asking yours truly, the Mardi-Gras Mask Wearer, why cases continued to come down. Even though Vaccinations were in their early stages, no one saw Delta coming. Now, we will not be caught off guard again. However, based on what I heard at Biden's State of the Union, Pharmacies will "test and treat" while white collar workers will work remotely - so that we can keep the Supply Chain Gang delivering product.
Figure 2 updates the Vaccination Table by Region. Compared with Week 102, the incremental change makes the 70% milestone that much further into the future - so much so, that I don't see any changes between now and the rest of the year, upcoming Spring Equinox notwithstanding. Interestingly, 4 out of 24 Border Counties exceed 90% Fully Vaccinated which balances low turnout for the Panhandle Inoculations (21 out of 57 Counties at 40% or lower Fully Vaccinated) bringing the overall State result in the lower 60's.
