Week 90: 11/29-12/5/2021
- jpoheim
- Dec 6, 2021
- 2 min read
Updated: Dec 13, 2021
Data reporting returned following the Thanksgiving Holiday. However, case backlogs did not show and this will affect cases for Week 91. The Hot Spot "Front" continues to move eastward. Finally, Vaccination Rates at the border are back up in the process of getting 5-12 year olds included in the fully-inoculated population.

Figure 1 (above) shows the evolution of Texas's map in terms of County Cases. According to my read, such changes are driven by spread from New Mexico. El Paso County has been in a rush to inoculate children as its Hospitalization and ICU Resources have been put under pressure (see Figure 2) https://elpasomatters.org/2021/11/18/el-paso-county-leads-state-in-covid-19-vaccination-rates-for-young-children/

From Week 89 to Week 90, El Paso doubled the number of newly fully vaccinated individuals. TSA-T (Laredo) do not show these trends. Instead, their "Hot Spot" status is because their Case Numbers have spiked; however, these have not yet translated to severe illness. Figure 3 illustrates the other trends along the border:

As for the Panhandle (Vaccination Status less than 50%), they are setting themselves up for a bad winter. Amarillo (TSA-A) is already feeling the effects of higher cases (see Figure 4)

The Hospitalizations per Capita results summarize the present moment (which is not apparent when the state as a whole is viewed). Both the Border and the Panhandle are well on the way to going back up the scale to where we were last August with Delta or even last January with the 2020 Holiday Surge. On the other hand, Central Texas and the Gulf Coast

are in pre-Delta territory with Hospitalization Resources lined out. In order to score further reductions, a much higher fully vaccinated population will be required. As shown, the leading counties in both regions (Travis, 68% and Ft. Bend, 72%) are well below the region where large pockets of unvaccinated individuals can become infected given the potential for exposure during the Holiday Season. Figure 5 reports Vaccination Rates that are a little higher than previous tables, but well below the levels needed to exceed 70% by New Year's.

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