Week 71, July 18-25 2021

Figure 1.

Trauma Service Area Covid Hospitalization numbers climbed to higher levels than the

previous week’s 7-day average (Week 71 = Gray Bar). By tracing each region’s graph to earlier weeks that match the height (red double-arrow), most of the state finds itself at levels from back in late February when we were in Phase 4 and restrictions were still in place, early March (purple bars). As shown to the right of each region, The last 3 Lime Green bars demonstrate a weekly doubling rate of 1 to 2 weeks.

Note that Figure 1 is in terms of per-capita hospitalizations in order to put all regions on the same population basis.

Figure 2.

Cases (taupe bars) and Hospitalizations (blue bars) by Region illustrate the size of increases in both metrics over the last two weeks. As shown, the Border Cases go up by a factor of 2 over the past 2 weeks while the other three regions are between multiples of 3 or more over the same time period.

Since all four graphs are on the same Confirmed Cases/ week and Number of Covid-19 Hospitalized Patients scales they can be compared visually to show that North Texas has the highest number of cases while Central Texas (with a much smaller hospital base) is equal in number of Covid-19 patients. With cases rising exponentially, these four areas will see the hospital Covid patient occupancy rates similar to those of this past Winter (blue peaks during the month of October)

The Panhandle numbers are small relative to the State Total. Even on a per capita basis, these do not equal the surges experienced by the Gulf Coast, North Texas, Border, and Central Texas. Figure 3. shows the Overall Texas, composite results. They include a sharp change in direction where all parts of the state were lined-out or decreasing prior to the week ending on 6/27 (Week 67). While this surge is attributed to the Delta Variant, the July 4 holiday activities involving large crowds, travel, and high temperatures driving events indoors giving the variant the best of all possible spreading conditions.

Figure 3. Cases (taupe bars) and Hospitalizations (blue bars) Overall In this view, one cannot distinguish the situation in Central (reaching a limit) and North Texas (plenty

Figure 4. Vaccination Rates range from 40% (Panhandle) to 67% (Border) with most of the state just over 50%. Week 71 data come to a .7% overall increase from last week , slightly less that the value obtained last week (.8%).

While the Border continues to add 1% more fully vaccinated individuals to its bottom line, the other regions have counties with high resistance to any Public Health Efforts to reach out to communities with low numbers ( Read this Houston Chronicle article about how anti vaxxers are making life difficult for officials in Fort Bend County, the vaccination leader along the Gulf Coast https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Fort-Bend-s-success-at-getting-shots-in-arms-is-16337872.php ).

Figure 5. Cases vs/ % Vaccinated by Select Counties Back in April when I started tracking vaccinations, I stated that we are in a race with the Variants in order to reinforce our “return to Normal Activities”. Unfortunately, the recent data is a setback and we are not vaccinated in numbers great enough to sustain a reducing trend in hospital utilization or the number of deaths, and complications. Looking back to the beginning of July, each region went through an sharp increase in slope (change in cases larger than change in % vaccinated) - like hitting a wall. This week, we can see how the “wall impact” is less pronounced the higher the fraction of Vaccinated population. Moving from the right at High Vaccination Levels, we see data points above 30 cases per 100,000 in the order of high to low in the % vaccinated: Gray (Border, El Paso), Red (Gulf Coast, Fort Bend), Gray (Travis, Central), Pumpkin (Collin, North), and Green (Lubbock, Panhandle).

Where vaccination levels exceeded 45% before May, there was an earlier period where the Delta Variant was getting established. 50-60% of hosts were vaccinated; therefore, for these hosts, the viral shedding and subsequent spread was reduced. With most of the Panhandle unvaccinated, the virus is able to reproduce at full rates without being deterred by people with a sufficient immune response.