Week 70, 7/11 to 7/18/2021

Figure 1. Trauma Service Area Covid Hospitalization numbers climbed to higher levels than the previous week’s 7-day average(Week 70 = Gray Bar). As a result, the state has reverted to levels seen just after the Great Texas Freeze (early-March). So far, Regional Covid-19 Patient Counts fall into the period after restrictions were lifted and 7 weeks ago, (lime green bars). While such increases are of concern, Covid-19 hospitalizations are small compared to last summer’s (light blue) and winter’s (purple) surges.

Figure 2. illustrates the comparison of Hospitalization and cases for North, Central and Gulf Coast regions. Note that the relationship between cases and number of Covid-19 patients is similar to March values (All regions except Central 5 to 6: 1; Central is roughly twice the March ratio 9:1).

Figure 3. Vaccination Rates range from 40% (Panhandle) to 66% (Border) with most of the state just over 50%. The latest incremental addition to Week 69 totals at .8%, were the

average of values close to 1% (Border and Gulf Coast) and those of the rest of the state at .5%. Given the high numbers still unvaccinated, even Border areas will be exposed to Delta Variant infections. Here, as in the rest of Texas, there are two ways to limit the surge: (1) reduce number of people present together indoors and (2) ask people to mask up in order to protect immunocompromised and unvaccinated individuals. The latter category includes children less than 12. With schools and universities set to open within the next four weeks, it is essential for people to voluntarily take these actions without waiting for leaders, businesses, and community organizations to come up with public orders/requests.

Figure 4. Back in April when I started tracking vaccinations, I stated that we are in a race with the Variants in order to reinforce our “return to Normal Activities”. Unfortunately, the recent data is a setback and we are not vaccinated in numbers great enough to continue reducing the number of cases, deaths, and complications. The Delta Variant has demonstrated higher viral loading during the early stages and this feature partially accounts

for its faster rates of transmission. Each region, as cases mounted after the Independence Day Holiday weekend, shows a sharp increase - like hitting a wall in its Cases vs. % Vaccinated. While the high Vaccination numbers at the border were able to keep this result in check for longer than other parts of the state, there are still 30% of their population unvaccinated. Here and elsewhere, the numbers are between 40 and 60%, so a lot more shots will be needed to establish a new plateau much less resume down the case curve.