100 Weeks into the Covid-19 Pandemic and we find ourselves trying to shake this unending, unsettling dream. What is normal? Is it full hospitals with burned-out health care providers? Is it Teachers and their students' parents at each other's throats? Is it restaurants with HELP WANTED signs on Delivery Vehicles?
A radio discussion bemoaned the fact that Governors have had to lead in place of our CDC officials over whether mask mandates should come to an end. My position is schooled by over 30 years of experience in the Chemical Process Industry Workplace. When board operators are subject to repeat alarms that come back as soon as they are silenced, they are conditioned to look elsewhere to stabilize flows, temperatures, and pressures. The controls need to be tuned, instruments need to be calibrated, and the algorithm needs to be refashioned. Back in Week 1, I came to this data with the goal of applying process control fundamentals to the understanding the dynamics of ebb and flow of the virus.
At Week 100, we have plots with a story of at least three surges: the Surge of Summer 2020, the Surge of Winter 2021, Delta, and Omicron. Over this time, it became apparent that there was some relationship (cause and effect not yet determined) between degrees of separation between people who live and work in geographical proximity and holiday travel (Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year's, Graduation/Memorial Day through Labor Day). While the former serves to determine spreading paths, the latter serves to define a 6-month period between the introduction of new variants.
With this said and omicron in remission, I must side with the CDC that six months from now (August, 2022) we will experience the next Covid-19 variant, vaccinations notwithstanding. So, do not throw your masks away, make backup plans for everything including vacations, voting, classes, medical appointments, and exercise routines. My husband and I have spent years living along the Gulf Coast; I have experienced more than 15 hurricanes during this time. Just like you would never question the need and the wherewithal to evacuate when winds and rain are headed your way, we would never ignore the experts telling us how bad the storm is and how much time we had.
Figure 1 is the latest in our Hospitalizations-Fatalities Overlay. The goal, now that Omicron has peaked is to compare fatalities between now and these time last year (where hospitalizations are close to where they are now). At least two more weeks are needed given that Examiner-certified death certificates are needed to plot omicron deaths.
Fortunately, on a Hospitalization Covid-19 Patient basis, Delta levels were not exceeded in any Texas region. In fact, except for San Antonio, all metro areas had extra beds that would have been open to rural TSA's where availability was more limited.
The following TSA's have 5 or less ICU beds: Abilene (A); Paris (F); Belton/Killene (L); Waco(M); Bryan/College Station(N); and, Laredo (T) . Of these, three are in N. Texas, two are in Central Texas, and one is on the Border - meaning that except for the Gulf Coast, all parts of the state find themselves struggling despite the sentiment that it is time to phase-out mandates.
With the availability of Booster Data to go along with the rest of Tabulated Vaccination results, I have been able to determine that Texas counties have provided boosters for between 17 and 50% of their populations. Whether these boosters go with Seniors or other demographics will take more time. Assuming that Seniors are completely protected from other variants, the rest could be vulnerable six months from now when such new surges could be on the horizon.
Figure 2 shows the Vaccination Status as of Week 100. At 6 months from now, we should be
at 70% completely vaccinated; however, this target is out of date based on what we learned during 2021. Instead, 80% will probably be a more apt target; booster compliance will also be a must. The latest Atlantic Monthly has more to say on this subject: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/vaccinate-old/622080/
